Moment of truth: ten years after Paris Agreement

In 2015, global leaders celebrated a landmark moment: the Paris Agreement set the world on a path to limit warming to well under 2 °C, and ideally 1.5 °C. But the more recent assessment is sobering: while progress has been made, the pace is far from what is required. The planet’s annual temperature has already risen ~0.46 °C since 2015.

This sobering global reality has very different implications for countries depending on their primary energy-and-export profiles. Let’s explore what it means for Saudi Arabia and South Africa.

Saudi Arabia: Navigating oil-world reality and the transition – The challenge

Saudi Arabia is deeply embedded in the global oil economy. For decades it has played a central role in supplying crude, fueling the world’s energy-system, and building wealth around that extractive business. The global push to decarbonise threatens to erode the long-term value of oil reserves and the stability of oil-centric economies.

According to the global assessment, fossil-fuel burning (coal, oil, natural gas) continues to emit large volumes of CO₂ and methane, and the reduction in those emissions is too slow. For Saudi Arabia this means: the transition isn’t just about replacing one fuel with another — it’s about re-thinking the role of oil in the future economy, and how the country adapts and transforms.

Opportunities

  • Saudi Arabia has the resources (sunlight, land, technical capacity) to accelerate renewable-energy deployment, hydrogen development, carbon capture and storage (CCS). Because the oil economy built up institutional capacity, infrastructure and export networks, the country is relatively well placed to pivot.
  • The global move toward cheaper renewables is also a tailwind: renewables are now cheaper than many fossil fuels in many places.
  • By strategically linking its oil industry to new low-carbon value chains (for example green hydrogen, petro-chemical feedstocks, or export of low-carbon fuels) Saudi Arabia can turn a potential risk (declining oil demand) into an opportunity.

Risks & key strategic questions

  • What happens if global oil demand declines faster than anticipated, leaving stranded assets? The country will need to manage that risk, re-align fiscal strategies and diversify.
  • How fast can Saudi Arabia reduce methane and CO₂ emissions in its oil and gas operations, and move toward zero-flaring, improved efficiency, CCS?
  • How to balance domestic development (jobs, social services, diversification) with decarbonisation imperatives?
  • How to manage the reputational risk: an oil country signalling global leadership on climate while still exporting fossil fuels.

What success could look like

  • A clear national roadmap that transitions from “oil-exporter” to “energy-value-creator”, where oil revenues bridge to renewables, hydrogen and new technologies.
  • Incremental reduction in upstream emissions, flaring, methane leaks, and increasing capture of CO₂.
  • International partnerships (technology, finance) and export of low-carbon hydrogen, for example attracting investment globally.
  • A domestic energy transition that ensures jobs, local content and social stability even as oil’s dominance wanes.

South Africa: The coal-legacy economy facing transition

The challenge

South Africa has long depended on coal — for electricity generation, for export, for employment in mining and associated industries. As the world moves away from coal (which is the highest-carbon fossil fuel) the implications for South Africa are profound.
The global data shows emissions are still growing in many regions, and though renewables are growing fast, the world remains off pace for the 1.5 °C goal. For South Africa this means coal-based infrastructure, jobs and export markets face disruption.

Opportunities

  • The country has abundant renewable resources (solar, wind), and potential to become a renewable hub for the continent — leveraging sunshine, skilled workforce and existing grid/infrastructure in some cases.
  • Transitioning away from coal offers an opportunity for job creation in new sectors (renewables manufacturing, services, grid upgrades) if managed well and with investment.
  • International financing (climate finance, green funds) may support the transition, offering South Africa a chance to leapfrog into cleaner energy systems rather than just incremental adjustments.

Risks & key strategic questions

  • Social and employment risk: many communities and workers are tied to coal mining and coal power. Mis-managed transition could cause major social disruption.
  • Energy security risk: the grid has already had stability issues; shifting away from coal must ensure reliable supply.
  • Export risk: if global demand for coal weakens, export revenues drop — investors may run, and stranded asset risk looms.
  • Investment risk: South Africa must ensure it attracts sufficient public and private financing, establishes regulatory certainty, modernises governance and grid frameworks.

What success could look like

  • A gradual but decisive shift away from coal-fired power, with a phased retirement or repurposing of coal plants, while ramping up renewables, storage and grid modernisation.
  • Up-skilling and transition programmes in coal-dependent regions so workers migrate into renewables, grid services and energy-efficiency sectors.
  • Secure funding (international and domestic) for the transition with equity, not just debt, to ensure sustainability.
  • A national climate strategy aligning with the 1.5–2 °C goals, embedding justice (just transition) and inclusive growth.

Shared themes & cross-cutting insights

  • Both oil-rich and coal-reliant countries must recognise that achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement will require speed, scale and systemic change — more than incremental adjustments. The global assessment says the world is off pace. Share Google
  • Transition is not just about technology; it’s about policy, finance, institutions, social dimensions (jobs, communities, governance).
  • Export-dependent fossil-fuel economies face stranded-asset risk and must plan diversification now, not later.
  • Renewable energy is no longer just a future ideal — it is competitive now. That gives all countries an opening to act.
  • Equity and justice matter: the transition must embed fairness, especially in places with vulnerable workers and communities reliant on fossil-fuel sectors.

Why time matters

The decade since 2015 offered hope, but the warning signs are clear: the planet is warming faster than the transition is proceeding. For Saudi Arabia and South Africa (and, by extension, all fossil-fuel economies) the message is urgent. The transition window is narrowing.
Getting ahead of the curve — via strong national strategy, investment in clean energy, sound regulation, social planning and global partnerships — is no longer optional. It’s essential.

As one commentator said:

“We’re sort of sawing the branch on which we are sitting.”

For Saudi Arabia, that means leveraging its oil legacy to power a clean-energy future. For South Africa, it means leaving coal behind — not with disruption but with a roadmap of opportunity. The world may be slipping behind the 1.5 °C goal, but the sooner action is taken, the better chance these countries have to thrive in the new global energy era.

The search for GDP growth – Hydrogen

Strategic Vision & Policy Framework - Hydrogen

South Africa’s Hydrogen Society Roadmap (2021) and the Green Hydrogen Commercialisation Strategy (GHCS) have been formally adopted, setting clear targets like deploying 10 GW of electrolyzer capacity in the Northern Cape by 2030 and producing ~500,000 tonnes per year of green hydrogen by then.

In April 2025, the government approved the Renewable Energy Masterplan (SAREM) to scale renewables, energy storage, and hydrogen production as part of the energy transition.

Financing & Partnerships

The Green Hydrogen National Programme includes a R300 billion ($19‑28 billion) pipeline of SIP‑registered projects, with 9 already registered and 11 pending.

The EU pledged $35 million in 2024 to support Transnet’s infrastructure and the broader value chain.

The SA‑H2 Fund, a blended finance vehicle, recently backed the Hive Hydrogen Coega green ammonia project with up to $20 million, tied to broader regional investment from the Netherlands and Denmark.

Additional international backing comes from Germany (H2Global), Japan (NEDO), the Netherlands, and others investing billions in exports and value‑chain development.

Major Projects & Scaling Up

Boegoebaai Green Hydrogen Hub in the Northern Cape (5–10 GW renewables capacity) aims to produce hydrogen derivatives and export them via a dedicated deep‑water port. It’s a phased project targeting 2028 for initial output and full scale by 2035, with projected production costs of $1.60–2.10/kg by 2030.

A 1,430 MW solar cluster in the Northern Cape will support hydrogen production and grid supply. It has full permits and is under development.

The Mogalakwena hydrogen valley near Mokopane links mining hubs (PGM-rich) to Johannesburg and Durban via a proposed hydrogen corridor, enabling hydrogen‑powered mining, mobility and export logistics.

Eskom has issued tenders for a pilot renewable green hydrogen facility at its Johannesburg R&D unit and is prioritizing hydrogen production as part of its path to net-zero by 2050.

Market Size & Economic Outlook

In 2023, South Africa’s hydrogen generation revenue was about USD 2.5 billion, projected to grow at ~7.5 % CAGR to reach USD 4.2 billion by 2030—transportation is the fastest-growing segment, while ammonia production is currently the largest.

Hydrogen demand is expected to rise from approximately 2.1 million tonnes in 2023 to ~3.0 million tonnes by 2034, with a CAGR of ~3.2 %.

The hydrogen sector could account for around 3.6 % of GDP by 2050, create upwards of 360,000–370,000 jobs, and generate billions in export revenue through green ammonia, synthetic fuels, and green steel.

Opportunities

Massive renewables potential: Northern Cape solar irradiation and coastal wind resources are among the world’s best.

Platinum Group Metals (PGMs): South Africa holds ~80 % of global PGM reserves, vital for electrolyzers and fuel cells.

Strategic infrastructure: existing port, rail and energy corridors in Saldanha, Coega, Richards Bay, and Johannesburg support export logistics.

Challenges

Investment scale: Estimates suggest R350–500 billion (USD 19–28 billion) is needed by 2035; current public financing is a fraction of that total.

Water scarcity: Electrolysis is water-intensive (~9 litres per kg), raising supply concerns in semi-arid regions.

Policy stability and bankability: Investors seek long-term clarity; most JET-IP funding is loan-based, not grants.

Long lead‑times for giga-scale projects and global market risk uncertainties.

Summary

South Africa is actively moving from roadmap to execution and is one of Africa’s most advanced green hydrogen markets. While still nascent, the sector is rapidly scaling through flagship projects, international finance, and industrial integration. If current plans hold, South Africa has the potential to become a top global hydrogen exporter by the early 2030s, leveraging its renewables, PGM advantage, and strategic port infrastructure.

 

Climate tracker

Our recent projects in Saudi Arabia and Dubai created an opportunity to explore some useful sources of information.  The climate action tracker (“CAT”) rates and compares countries across the world on various different parameters.  Please go a have a look – Click on the picture

The Climate Action Tracker is an independent scientific project that tracks government climate action and measures it against the globally agreed Paris Agreement aim of “holding warming well below 2°C, and pursuing efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C.” A collaboration of two organisations, Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, the CAT has been providing this independent analysis to policymakers since 2009.

CAT quantifies and evaluates climate change mitigation targets, policies and action. It also aggregates country action to the global level, determining likely temperature increases during the 21st century using the MAGICC climate model. CAT further develops sectoral analysis to illustrate required pathways for meeting the global temperature goals.


IA and AI

For the past 20 years, Protiviti has been publishing a regular whitepaper series on leading practices by internal audit functions titled “Internal Auditing Around the World.” For its milestone Internal Auditing Around the World 20th Anniversary Edition, Protiviti elected not to focus on the practices of individual internal audit teams, but instead to chronicle the progress the profession has made during the two decades of the series.

Summary of Findings:

  • Strategic Evolution: Internal audit functions have shifted from compliance-focused roles to strategic partners, adding significant organizational value.
  • Value Delivery: The focus has broadened from compliance to a wide array of assurance and advisory services, redefining internal audit as a key provider of strategic insights.
  • Board Engagement: Internal audit leaders are now more engaged with boards, advising on high-risk areas such as cybersecurity, fraud, and sustainability.
  • Technology Integration: The modernization of internal audit is driven by advancements in data analytics, automation, and AI.
  • Talent Development: Leading audit functions prioritize diverse talent, emphasizing both technical expertise and soft skills like communication and critical thinking.
  • Agents of Change: Top-tier internal audit teams act as catalysts for organizational change, helping to mitigate risks and seize opportunities.

Future Strategic Directions:

  • Prioritize Transformation: Align internal audit transformation efforts with both immediate business needs and long-term strategic planning, focusing on enhancing processes, customer experiences, and operational efficiencies.
  • Lean on Technology: Embrace technology as an integral part of audit practices to enhance the relevance and value of internal audit.
  • Cultivate Talent: Develop high-performing professionals who can address complex risks and bring strategic focus to internal audit.
  • Adopt an Innovation Mindset: Approach organizational challenges with innovative solutions, extending beyond just technological advancements.
  • Strategic Partnering: Enhance collaboration and communication to align internal audit priorities with those of the board and C-suite, ensuring that internal audit remains a strategic partner in the organization.

Protiviti’s report underscores the importance of these strategies for Chief Audit Executives (CAEs) and their teams to remain at the forefront of the evolving internal audit profession and their teams to remain strategic, highly relevant, focused on value and opportunities, centered on risk, and empowered by technology as advisors.

How to use COSO to implement and scale AI projects

Amid a surge in technological capabilities, many organizations are rapidly deploying artificial intelligence (AI) to make maximum use of data and make certain processes more efficient and effective. But along with opportunities for improvement, AI can pose risks that often are not isolated to a single department such as IT, but affect multiple functions throughout an organization.

As a result, organizations need governance, risk management, and controls to take advantage of AI’s benefits while operating within their own risk appetite. Effective enterprise risk management (ERM) can guide an organization’s strategy in this area, and this topic is addressed in research published by the Committee of Sponsoring Organizations of the Treadway Commission (COSO).

COSO is a joint initiative of five private-sector organizations, including the AICPA, that develops thought leadership to enhance internal control, risk management, governance, and fraud deterrence. Over the last few years, COSO has endeavored to publish application-oriented guidance that helps organizations apply its principles-based frameworks to challenges and opportunities they encounter.

The guidanceRealize the Full Potential of Artificial Intelligence, describes how an organization can use the COSO ERM Framework and principles to help implement and scale AI projects. The publication is authored by Deloitte & Touche LLP, and it further explains how Deloitte’s proprietary, nonauthoritative AI framework can be considered in AI implementation.

The COSO guidance explains that by understanding AI-related risks, an organization may be better positioned to deliver return on investment and meet shareholder expectations. Through ERM, organizations can refine and adapt their AI efforts to effectively support their strategies.

COSO Chairman Paul Sobel said in an interview that some companies are implementing AI projects one at a time without considering how AI as a whole fits into their governance processes and strategy.

“You have to view AI from a broader perspective,” he said. “You need governance over your AI initiatives. You need to make sure they fit with your strategies and objectives. You need to understand the risks associated with it and how to manage and monitor those risks.”

According to the guidance, AI platforms need to be:

  • Trusted, because ERM is transparent by nature and it helps keep an organization abreast of its risks and opportunities;
  • Tried, with models continually tested and vetted to make sure they are operating as intended; and
  • True, with governance, risk management, testing, and monitoring processes that help AI platforms reflect the organization’s values and protect its reputation.

Sobel said organizations need to carefully consider whether they have the right governance in place over AI.

“It’s important to have good governance over any sort of technology-type initiative, and then the strategy and objective-setting component is, make sure you’re doing this because it actually links with and enables a strategy or objective,” he said. “You’re not doing it just because you can.”

Once governance is established and strategies and objectives are defined, organizations can more effectively consider the risks and how to manage them.

Sobel expects use of AI to continue to accelerate, partly as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. A trend toward automation coupled with worker shortages has increased the likelihood that businesses will use AI to handle certain tasks.

Indeed, research published by IBM indicates that 43% of IT professionals said their company has accelerated its rollout of AI as a result of the pandemic. “We know it’s going to be exploding so much in the future,” he said, “and it would be very helpful for companies to read and understand how to look at AI a little more holistically just like any other type of risk or initiative and apply those COSO components and principles in such a way that it can help optimize your success with it.”

Continental Artificial Intelligence Strategy

More than 130 African ministers and experts have virtually convened from June 11 to 13, 2024 for the 2nd Extraordinary session of the Specialized Technical Committee on Communication and ICT to ignite digital transformation across the continent amidst rapid evolutions in the sector fuelled by artificial intelligence (AI) technology and applications.

The Continental AI Strategy provides guidance to African countries to harness artificial intelligence to meet Africa’s development aspirations and the well-being of its people, while promoting ethical use, minimising potential risks, and leveraging opportunities. 

These steps were reinforced during the 2nd Extraordinary session of the Specialized Technical Committee on Communication and ICT, aiming to propel Africa’s role in global digital governance and ensure that the unique challenges and contexts of Africa are addressed in the global discourse around digital technologies.

The Next Seven Steps Towards a Continental Artificial Intelligence Strategy

  1. Harnessing AI for Development: African ICT and Communications Ministers endorsed a Continental Artificial Intelligence (AI) Strategy to leverage AI for Africa’s development goals, emphasizing ethical use and risk minimization.
  2. People-Centered AI Approach: The strategy emphasizes an Africa-owned, inclusive, and development-oriented approach to build AI capabilities in infrastructure, talent, datasets, innovation, and partnerships while ensuring protection from threats.
  3. AI for Diverse African Realities: Adapting AI to reflect Africa’s diversity, languages, culture, and contexts, aiming to create an inclusive AI ecosystem and a competitive African AI market.
  4. Building AI-Ready Environments: Developing human capital, research and innovation ecosystems, and an AI-ready regulatory environment to apply AI in education, health, agriculture, infrastructure, peace, security, and governance.
  5. Investing in Youth and Innovators: Focusing on investing in African youth, innovators, computer scientists, data experts, and AI researchers to succeed in the global AI arena.
  6. Adoption of the African Digital Compact: Endorsing the African Digital Compact, a vision for Africa’s digital future to foster sustainable development, economic growth, and societal well-being through digital technologies.
  7. Empowering Participation in the Digital Economy: Highlighting the importance of capacity building, knowledge transfer, and creating enabling ecosystems to empower Africa’s youth, private sector, and institutions for participation in the digital economy.

Google and Deloitte Drive Climate Action with Digital Solutions

Google’s new Digital Sprinters sustainability report, commissioned by Deloitte, explores how digital technologies like AI and IoT can accelerate climate solutions, particularly in developing markets. The report emphasizes the role of public policy in deploying these solutions and offers strategic recommendations to drive digital transformation for climate action.

Key Impact Points:

  • Digital Tech for Climate Action: AI, IoT, and cloud platforms can significantly reduce global emissions.
  • Policy Recommendations: Focus on infrastructure, education, innovation, and enabling policies to drive digital transformation for climate action.
  • Climate Resilience: Digital tools enhance forecasting and response strategies, crucial for areas highly susceptible to climate impacts.

Digital Tech for Climate Action

Google, in partnership with Deloitte, has launched the Digital Sprinters sustainability report. This report examines how digital solutions such as AI and IoT can reduce emissions and promote sustainability. Google’s commitment to using technology to combat climate change spans three decades, recognizing the significant potential of digital tech to accelerate meaningful action.

We believe that fighting climate change is an important collective challenge and for three decades, we have been using technology to accelerate meaningful action

Google

Policy Recommendations

The report provides policy recommendations across four strategic areas: Infrastructure, People, Enabling Policies, and Technology Innovation. These recommendations aim to enhance digital transformation and support climate action:

  • Infrastructure: Policies expanding internet access and data availability, along with public support for satellite and IoT deployment, can create an environment conducive to effective climate solutions.
  • People: Enhancing digital education can develop a workforce skilled in climate science and digital technology.
  • Technological Innovation: Establishing innovation hubs, supporting early-stage digital businesses, and adopting digital climate solutions can bolster government initiatives.
  • Enabling Policies: Creating standards for climate-related information and using digital tools to implement sustainability regulations can help foster sustainable markets.

Climate Resilience

With over 3.6 billion people living in areas vulnerable to climate change, digital tools are essential for crisis response and building resilient infrastructure. These technologies enable precise climate impact forecasting and improve decision-making, automation, and innovation.

Digital tools enable precise climate impact forecasting through data collection and analysis, forming the basis for planning and response strategies,” highlights the report.

Google’s Digital Sprinters framework assists governments in shaping policies for digital transformation. The report underscores the need for strategic public policies to deploy digital solutions effectively, thereby accelerating climate action and fostering economic growth.

Swiss Government’s contribution to the Green Climate Fund

There is a shrinking window of opportunity to address the climate crisis. Average global temperature is currently estimated to be 1.1°C above pre-industrial times. Based on existing trends, the world could cross the 1.5°C threshold within the next two decades and 2°C threshold early during the second half of the century. Limiting global warming to 1.5°C is still narrowly possible and will be determined by the investment decisions we make over the next decade. The Green Climate Fund (GCF) – a critical element of the historic Paris Agreement – is the world’s largest climate fund, mandated to support developing countries raise and realize their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) ambitions towards low-emissions, climate-resilient pathways.

Switzerland will continue to support the Green Climate Fund (GCF) with a total contribution of CHF 135 million over the next four years. The Federal Council took this decision at its meeting on 10 April 2024. The GCF helps developing countries take concrete action to achieve the goals of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Agreement. In particular, it funds initiatives aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to climate change.

The Federal Council has decided to allocate CHF 135 million to the second replenishment of the GCF for the years 2024 to 2027, as provided for in the Dispatch on Switzerland’s International Cooperation 2021–24. This decision demonstrates the Federal Council’s commitment to addressing the growing challenges of climate change and the urgent need for action.

The GCF is the world’s largest fund dedicated to combating climate change. Its approach prioritises the needs of developing countries, which are disproportionately affected by climate change. The GCF also supports efforts to reduce CO2 emissions and adapt to climate change. To date, the GCF has invested in over 250 projects in 130 countries, which are expected to benefit more than a billion people and sustainably reduce global CO2 emissions by approximately 3 billion tonnes.

Related Article: IFC and Switzerland Expand Partnership to Build Climate-Resilient Urban Infrastructure in Emerging Markets

Switzerland’s support for the GCF is part of its contribution to international climate finance and fulfils one of its obligations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Agreement. This obligation includes providing financial support for climate initiatives in low-income countries, thereby also contributing to the implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.